Our Digital Agenda for Kenya

Kenya has now become a true digital society. The digital agenda permeates the country's economy from retail (e-commerce) to  education , health , social interactions and personal relationships and many other areas. Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) have become  integral to Kenya in terms of professional and personal life; individuals, businesses and government are increasingly inter-connected via a host of devices at home and at work, in public spaces and on the move. 

 As a Kenyan company we are  looking to partner in and to work with Kenyan counties in the implementation of strategic projects that will further and to sustain this digital agenda. For instance, we are looking into the installation of Municipal and Rural fiber-optics infrastructure for the purpose of providing local residents with quality access to services such as e-government, e-finance, e-health and smart education .  

More than this,  a county government  could be looking to  invest in platforms that support:

• Utilization of a networked infrastructure to improve and enable economic and political effi ciencies and social, cultural, and urban development.
• Utilization of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to enhance prosperity and competitiveness for citizens and local businesses alike. 
• Utilization of ICT to increase effective governance.
• Development for the purpose of attracting new business.
• Collective community intelligence, based on effective planning for urban and regional development, and innovation management.
• A focus on social and environmental sustainability through the participation of citizens in processes and the balancing of growth initiatives with the protection of valuable natural resources.

We are looking to help develop the venture in  such a county to achieve these  outcomes that we believe could go a long way in taking the digital economy down to  local urban centers  as well as  spurring  great innovation within  rural villages.

How do these platforms support the digital economy? a brief outline is presented below:

1.BROADBAND

Networks are the backbone of  Smart technologies - they allow local governments to communicate more effectively among their various departments and divisions, as well as improving the transparency of the dialogue between and among those departments/divisions, vendors/service providers, the local business community, and citizens. Such networks increasingly enable citizen access and input into local government services, energy management, water management, local efforts related to intelligent transportation and traffic management, public safety and security, and educational services.

2. COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES

The protection of citizenry requires enabling of reliable communications among police, firefighters, and emergency medical personnel that cannot be disrupted during crises. We are focusing on creating an opportunity for seamless communication between all stakeholders within the economy including the Police, educational institutions, hospitals, the public and the private sector.

3. INTELLIGENT TRANSPORT AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Intelligent Transportation Systems must strive to address safety and efficiency issues, both in the transportation infrastructure and within vehicles themselves, through the use of advanced information and communications technologies. Traffic Information Systems provide useful data that allow drivers to be made aware of current traffic status, including real-time updates of actual traffic incidents and advisories, in order to save time and fuel by plotting the shortest/most direct routes to their destinations.

4. IDENTIFICATION CARDS/SYSTEMS

Smart identity documents such as e-ID cards, driver licenses, and e-passports, which permit wireless verification of the authenticity of these documents that also allow for virtual and e-payments. This will assist the development of traffic management systems, smart parking meters,and more. Our Smart Cities will provide residents with chip-based smart cards that will serve as a means of identification and also provide access to city services.

5. SMART GRIDS AND SMART METERS

Electrical power grids are being upgraded with communications capabilities, permitting utilities to monitor usage and end users to adjust their power consumption to take advantage of times when electrical rates are lowest. The consumer benefits of the smart grid are enabled by smart meters, which will wirelessly communicate with the utility, and permit consumers to control their energy usage in real-time, such as switching off energy-hungry appliances during peak billing hours.

We are currently developing a funding partnership to enable the development of the initial infrastructure outlay that will create business opportunities in these technologies that are set to improve services to citizens, business communities and government organizations.

 We believe that Kenya is now ready to join the global category called the emerging group of nations. These are developing countries that are neither least developed countries, nor of the newly industrialized nations. We are focused on supporting the  research and  on helping develop synergy between communities, governments and investors in the key sectors that are set to help our country raise its economic and social profile using technology and other means. Your support through funding, partnership and collaboration can help build the infrastructure and/or the required  platforms.

Ken Gumbe
www.trd.co.ke

Revitalization of The Port of Kisumu

In 2017, the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) began the project to re modernize the Port of Kisumu. We are excited by the prospects of having a modern, functional and efficient port in the lakeside city. However, the revitalization of the port of Kisumu will  require a sustainable development model including an adequate cargo and passenger generation plan  to ensure that the port system will operate at its optimum for the benefit of  East Africa. 

Firstly, the port will need to be strategically located and provide the required advantages for it to be considered as a preferred destination for passengers and for cargo import and export. According to the World Bank, The catchment area of Lake Victoria holds a population of more than 35 million people, and is responsible for an approximate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of some US$30 billion, or around 40 percent of the total GDP from the East Africa Community Countries. With the right plan the port of Kisumu will offer a much needed strategic opportunity for Kenya to become a lake transport hub for the East African region. 

The Catchment Area

Significant economic potential exists around the lake, such as agriculture, irrigation, fishery and inland water transportation. The majority of the people who live around the lake depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Although its contribution to GDP has been declining due to the growth of other sectors (such as mining) agriculture remains crucial for inclusive growth, contributing to 20-30 percent of GDP and employing 60-70 percent of the total workforce. The region is estimated to have a potential theoretical maximum of US$63 billion of agricultural production per annum, assuming no constraints on land use. The region currently produces US$4.8 billion of agricultural commodities per annum, accounting for a significant share of total agricultural production in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.

In the Mwanza region of Tanzania (the largest port on Lake Victoria) about 85 percent of the population rely on agriculture for their livelihood. In the Mara region (one of Tanzania’s 30 administrative regions situated on the south eastern shore of Lake Victoria) nearly 90 percent of population are engaged in agriculture, contributing to about 60 percent of its regional GDP. The ports in Mwanza are  currently being upgraded to provide an opportunity to reduce transport/trade cost with the use of least cost links for especially for Burundi, part of Eastern DRC and Uganda as well as to provide viable alternative trade routes including to and from Kisumu. The proposed infrastructure and port safety  projects to improve access to  the region west of Lake Victoria and to the eastern shore of Lake Victoria could  help spur regional economic growth.

Uganda is a landlocked country with an area of 236,040 square kilometers. With a population size of 34.1 million, the country has recorded high population growth rate of 3.2 percent per annum. Uganda’s Vision 2040 calls for a series of structural measures to accelerate economic growth. Uganda has committed to building the stock of physical capital, notably through investments in the country’s ports on Lake Victoria which are seen as essential for economic development, agricultural productivity, and poverty reduction. The World Bank’s Africa Strategy highlights that Africa’s infrastructure networks increasingly lag behind those of other developing countries and are especially characterized by missing regional links and limited access.  The strategy notes that regional integration within East Africa could contribute significantly to reducing infrastructure costs, by allowing the region’s countries to capture scale economies and manage regional public goods effectively. Such a prospect offers the port project some opportunity to gain from the World Bank  infrastructure funding considerations.

Kisumu’s Competitive Advantage

Secondly, The port of Kisumu fronts Kenya’s third largest city. For decades, the port registered robust business activity helped by a reliable railway system and maritime vessels that ferried cargo to Tanzania and  Uganda. The plans  to construct a new green port in Kisumu and to extend a branch of the standard gauge railway being built from Mombasa are expected to restore high economic activity in the city. The proposal to revitalize the current port facility could offer a cheaper complementary means of transporting goods to the regional markets than by road. From a demand and revenue potential perspective, the port could focus on cargo handling and become an important hub for East African Community (EAC) trade, as it is conveniently situated for cargo destined for certain regions of Uganda, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, and Burundi.

Thirdly, the County Government of Kisumu is currently developing the Kisumu Lakefront City Project. The proposed project seeks to increase tourism activities within the western Kenya Tourism Circuit and to establish a Special Economic Zone. The Lakefront initiative aims to connect existing patterns and the Central Business District of Kisumu City; create a plot layout along the lakefront; optimize land use and land value; create investment opportunities; establish incremental growth opportunities; enhance public transport services; and harmoniously link the city and the lake including opening- up the lakefront to public access. There is  an opportunity to connect the port project as the special economic zone of the Kisumu Lakefront City.

Fourthly, another opportunity could be to position the new port  as a local cargo port focusing on the export of regional products and the import of local products from Uganda and Tanzania in and out of the interior piers in Homa Bay, Kendu Bay, Kowuor, Asembo Bay, Mbita, Muhuru Bay, Mfangano, and Port Victoria. The port could act primarily as a transit port, focusing on transit cargo from Mombasa to the EAC region as well as offer port related services from the Kisumu port shipyard to the inland piers under KPA. The 450KM Lake Victoria Ring Road Project is also currently being developed by the Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA) to connect the port system with five counties by road. The counties are Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori.

Sustainable Development 

Lastly, a sustainable development model will need to be considered for the port facility, implying that the design will need to meet international standards but  also reflect the need to balance the environmental, social and economic needs of the location. Some   factors that could be considered  could include but not be limited to the operational efficiency and appropriateness of the various  technological requirements. The port layout and the design options would have to reflect  the projected traffic demands and other parameters influencing the financial and operational viability for the development, operations and maintenance requirements of the new port. 

We look forward to participating in some way in this exciting project.

Kennedy Gumbe 

www.trd.co.ke 

(UKs) National Health Service (NHS) - Some Lessons for Kenya

Today (July 5), the UKs National Health Service (NHS) turns 70 years old. The much loved system is often reffered to as the 'mother of the nation' for the kind of care it has managed to deliver over the 7 decades of its existence. The UK has achieved quite some milestones that Kenya could learn from.

The  key indicators show  what is possible with publicly funded universal healthcare that Kenya hopes to achieve in the next few years.

Infant mortality in UK has dramatically decreased in England and Wales since the NHS system was introduced (Source : NHS (England and Wales)

The life expectancy of a male in England and Wales has also jumped from 65.86 to 79.46, while that of a female has jumped from 70.29 to 83.08. (Source : NHS (England and Wales)

In terms of employment creation the NHS is one of the world's largest employers with the number of people working in the NHS is just under 1.6 million, including thousands of staff supplied by agencies. There were approximately 381m GP consultations in England alone in 2015, according to estimates by Deloitte for the Royal College of GPs (there are no official figures).Of those who saw their GP, 59% were women. The number of practising GPs is 43,605 – with about 36,000 of them in England, meaning that each GP on average deals with approximately 10,000 appointments a year
The NHS is able to spend more than £24,000 to treat a patient with the most severe level of multiple trauma (physical injuries occurring simultaneously in several parts of the body). This is the most expensive of the 1,300 different types of treatment covered by NHS “tariffs”. (Source the Guardian).

However, one of the biggest benefits  of UKs universal health care system is the fact that information on patients is shared between medical establishments. This comes in the form of electronic health care records. Even though  not every medical center in the UK has completely digitized their records at the moment,  it will most likely happen within the next couple of years.

In 2011 we began an attempt to help develop a medical records initiative in Kenya within the context of Kenya's resource constraints. Our goal was that in any hospital encounter, especially an inpatient visit, dozens of individuals—billing clerks, blood lab technicians, consulting physicians, shift nurses would enter the patient medical records and make those records securely available to other facilities in the country. The purpose of this is to make it considerably easier to diagnose and treat patients. However, as the experience in the UK's NHS system shows, there are two key objectives that can be met by developing  a secure and efficient medical records system.

The first is to build the system for meaningful use.  Electronic Health Records and health information exchange systems are primarily meant to give clinicians relevant information about a patient at the point of care. The secondary use is to provide recommendations from medical literature and reliable access to those recommendations. In other words, to give clinicians information on what treatments have the best chance of working and how they apply to the patient in question. Third is to use  those recommendations based on computer based algorithms and reminders specific to the patient. 

 We are  studying the experiences of agencies like the NHS closely to come up with a technical outline of all our local  needs in Kenya. 

Kennedy Gumbe 

www.trd.co.ke 

Energy Vrs Industrialization - Kenya

Today i attended the Practitioners’ Forum on Advancing the Optimization of Kenyan Industry with Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy – Technologies and Case Studies hosted by the Delegation of German Industry and Commerce in Kenya. the German renewable energy sector is among the most innovative and successful worldwide and Kenya could learn a lot from from Germany  on how to balance  industrial development with a fairly balanced  mix of energy sources.

However, Kenya's greatest challenge today remains  achieving acceptable levels of power quality and reliability, based on well established principles of least-cost planning. Kenya is currently making major investments in generation and transmission of power in order to meet a target (not sure this is still a government priority as the country struggles with financial limitations ) however for benefits to be realized, similar levels of investment are required in the power distribution sub-sector and in its productive use (especially in the context of devolution).

Under the new constitution, power is supposed to be devolved to each of the forty seven counties. This is expected to result in more equitable sharing of resources across the country, with increased levels of investment particularly in the more remote counties that have historically been neglected. There exists  wide ranging levels of household electrification across the country, from around 75 % of households in Nairobi County to less than 2 % of households in Tana River as an example.  As electrification levels increase across the country  following devolution, it is expected that the rate of increase will be highest in those counties that are currently poorly served with electricity infrastructure.

These two competing factors, first, achieving acceptable efficiency within the distribution network and secondly, ensuring an increase in the amount of energy consumed by the majority of Kenyans (first achieving universal access - then (secondly) ensuring that each user utilizes the power for productive purposes) will remain the determining factors for Kenya's goal of becoming a middle income, industrializing economy by 2030 (Vision 2030).

The challenge of achieving efficiency in the distribution network is mostly the mandate of Kenya Power, currently Kenya's only power utility company. Kenya Power currently operates the grid in four distinct regions; Nairobi, Coast, Western and Mt. Kenya. According to the utility, the Nairobi region network configuration  is supplied from the transmission network via several 220/66 kV and 132/66 kV transmission substations or bulk supply points (BSPs). A number of 66 kV feeders emanate from each BSP and each 66 kV feeder supplies one or more primary (66/11 kV) substations. Each primary substation supplies a number of 11 kV feeders, which in turn supply 11/0.433 kV distribution substations. Larger customers may be supplied at 11 kV or 66 kV.

We may not go into the details of the whole Kenya Power system,  but the distribution network in the regions outside Nairobi is less interconnected, with many radial 33 kV feeders and generally with long distances between BSPs. Standard BSP design typically consists of 2 x 132/33 kV two winding transformers, however some BSPs are equipped with only a single transformer. Many projects are currently underway including new substations and feeders and reinforcement of existing substations and feeders and are aimed at extending the distribution network to new areas to increase coverage and reinforcement of the existing network. This could  accommodate demand growth and improve power quality and reliability.

However, the  distribution network suffers from poor reliability and quality of supply, which is generally due to under investment especially in the regions outside of Nairobi. While Nairobi seems to have achieved a somewhat acceptable reliability, the regions require a bit more work. For example, because many parts of the network are supplied by long radial feeders with no alternatives, a fault within the network will have a widespread effect- be difficult to locate and often result in prolonged outages.

Because the losses must be paid for, they represent a proportion of the energy purchased by consumers. Furthermore, distribution infrastructure must be sized for both the delivered power and power losses. This is partly the reason why power is expensive in Kenya (the other reason is high taxes and surcharges over and above the basic costs). Unfortunately, this (first) challenge spills over to the second issue which is to ensure  productive use of  power by Kenyans (even if  universal access is eventually attained).

 2018 saw an increase in the number of Kenyan companies reporting power outages. Over 90 per cent of the businesses   report outages  with  a fifth of them currently  suffering from severe blackouts. Also, high costs of power and unreliable supply could slow down key sectors critical to Kenya's industrialization. A country’s per capita consumption of electricity should at least be 300 kilowatts per hour to enable it to industrialize. At the moment, Kenyans on average consume about 164 units of electricity, which would mean that they need to double their productive use ( at least in the urban areas) of power  for Kenya to be ready to industrialize.

It is encouraging that Kenya Power (under the distribution Masterplan covering 2013-2017) is currently undertaking major system and infrastructural repair works that have resulted in increasing reliable power supply.  Commitments have been made of investing in approximately 300, 66 kV and 33 kV distribution projects (beyond a large number that were already under construction between 2013-2017 ). The estimated investment required for the 66 kV and 33 kV projects upto 2018 is $ 149 million , an estimated investment requirement in new BSPs and reinforcement of existing BSPs (beyond already committed BSP projects) of $107 million up-to 2018. Kenya therefore needs to develop support from her international partners (as a priority) in order to  accelerate these grid network improvements.

Kenya also needs to take advantage of her high literacy levels among citizens (over 75%) , develop more industry based productivity through the creation of  sustainable industrial initiatives, push for improved urban infrastructure especially in transportation,  housing and health as well as (accelerate access to and) automate utility services   in the rural areas.

These interventions could  help Kenya attain industrial development by quadrupling  the net Per-Capita of energy consumed by her citizens.



Kennedy Gumbe
www.trd.co.ke

The Case for Herbal Tea Farming : Kenya

 The Vision 2030 is Kenya's  long term development blue print covering the period 2008 to 2030. The Vision aims to transform Kenya into a middle income country providing high quality life to it citizens. It identifies agriculture as one of the sectors to drive the county in the journey to Vision 2030.

For Kenya to compete with the best in other parts of the world, increased value in agriculture  needs  to be achieved through processing and value addition of agricultural produce before they reach the global market place . This requires that all agricultural commodities including crop production, livestock production, aquaculture, forestry and forest products, and wildlife. and enterprises be highly productive, commercially oriented and competitive at all levels.

Kenya's agricultural commodities  are grouped into two categories, food crops and industrial crops, . Food crops include cereals, pulses, roots and tubers. Industrial crops include tea, coffee, sugarcane, cotton, sunflower, pyrethrum, barley, tobacco, sisal, coconut and bixa, all which contribute about 55% of the agricultural exports.

Tea is particularly of significant importance to the economy of Kenya. It contributes about 4% of the county’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and is the leading export earner at about 20 percent. It is an important source of livelihoods to over 5 million people and a key driver of economic wealth creation  .

Whilst Kenya is the third largest tea producing country in the world and the leading exporter of black tea, she remains vulnerable to market shocks due to over reliance on one type of tea product. The country mainly exports black CTC tea as opposed to developing a greater variety in its tea value chain. Kenya’s tea is also largely used for blending lower quality teas from other tea producing countries. As a result, it fetches lower prices resulting ultimately in diminished revenue to farmers and processors; and a low foreign exchange income for the country. Furthermore, Kenya’s tea industry has matured. Any mature industry typically has a growth rate of about 5 percent characterized by stagnant (inelastic) prices and diminishing marginal returns.

Recognizing the importance expanding Kenya’s the tea product base, Kenya could  aim to promote and guide investment decisions for the manufacture of high value specialty teas especially herbal teas. The country could  promote product diversification based on market intelligence and consumer preferences for the great range of choices in herbal tea products. Kenya can also  promote secondary tea product processing, branding, profiling and packaging; and promote establishment of cottage factories for manufacture of herbal tea products.

The world tea market is growing with an emerging variety of customer needs and tea consumers are becoming more selective and of the preferred varieties of herbal teas.  Herbal tea is really just an infusion of leaves, seeds, roots or bark, extracted in hot water. In drinking a well-steeped herbal tea, we get all the plant’s benefits in an easily digestible form. They are reported to have medicinal properties apart from offering tea drinkers  refreshment and satisfaction .

The world renown herbal tea varieties include peppermint tea,chamomile tea, rooibos tea, ginger tea, rooibos tea, lemon balm tea, milk thistle and dandelion, tea, and rosehip tea among many others that could  easily be found or grown within Kenya. 

The most popular among these varieties - Chamomile is a fast growing annual flower, easily grown from seed. The white-petalled daisy flowers are about 2cm wide. These fragrant flowers make it a great addition to any sensory garden and attract beneficial pollinating insects. It makes an attractive ground cover and can be planted in pots or garden beds.

Lemon Balm tea also  known as the ‘happy herb’ ( it helps you stop feeling sad and blue!) is  nature’s anti-depressant herb. ‘Balm’ means to lesson pain, soothe and heal. Lemon balm soothes the nervous system and lifts the spirits. In this age of stress, it’s a must have herb to grow in a pot or your garden

These teas offer Kenya a great opportunity to come out her tea export blues. 

Kennedy Gumbe
www.trd.co.ke

Off Grid Solar in Housing - Kenya

This year ( 2018) , we are seeking  to develop funding and other partnerships to implement solar power projects in Kenya. In order to meet their power requirements, these projects are designed and integrated with eco-friendly solar systems within their architectural plans. Kenya is a great place to install solar power because of its high solar intensity throughout the year.

Other than this, the government is currently offering great tax incentives to people and organizations that wish to adopt solar power systems within their projects. With the right partnership in place, we are proposing to install between 1.5kW to 5 kW solar systems for at least one SME business project, 2 churches, one residential solar community project, and one County Solar City’ Project. We hope that these projects will start a trend that will become a standard for other projects in Kenya in the near future.

It is widely accepted that one of the key characteristics of a flourishing economy is a vibrant small and medium enterprise (SME) sector. However, without reliable electricity, it is impossible for SMEs to establish themselves. Integrating between 2-5kW solar power systems within an SME project design could go a long way in ensuring that a business that requires a constant supply of power is able to start and run successfully. In order to demonstrate this concept, we have proposed to integrate a solar power installation for an entrepreneur who is currently planning to invest in a chicken raring
business in Kiambu County.

Churches offer a great opportunity to pilot solar projects. They pay huge electricity bills yet have great cash flows that can be used to get them up-to 100% off grid solar. We are proposing to work on two church in Nairobi that will initially aim for 70% solar power in the initial but will be potentially scaled up to 100% solar power.

Off-plan properties typically offer potential clients the opportunity to buy prior to
construction beginning at a significant discount, often with a small deposit requirement.
We are proposing to work with a community housing development project in Machakos
County to put all the new homes on solar. Our engineers are currently working with the
project developer to offer the buyer plans that will include options to integrate 30%, 70%
or 100 % solar systems within the architectural designs of their properties. The design
concept for each home is shown is below.

Finally, Kisumu County has a high proportion of sunny days, peaky demand profile for
power and relatively high electricity costs for public facilities. This makes Kisumu City
the ideal location to pilot our new Solar City concept. The concept is aimed at bringing
together a group of partner organizations that will include the county government,
venture capital partners, banks, technology providers, Non-Governmental partners
among others working us. The Objective of the Project is to undertake an industrial,
commercial and residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems implementation focused on innovation and with the goal of replicating the outcomes from trial areas and households
to other counties.

Our solar solution chart is presented below:

Kennedy Gumbe
www.trd.co.ke

Kenya's Big 4 Agenda - Ethiopia's Case Study

The government of Kenya recently (2018) announced that it  is  pursuing a five year  development agenda centered  on four focus areas namely ; manufacturing, universal healthcare, affordable housing, and food security (The Big Four Agenda). In order to gauge the possible outcome  Kenya's proposed plan, we  look  at Ethiopia's experience in the last decade and specifically on the need to achieve a balance between a development agenda and achieving the actual economic benefits.

In  2002/03 Ethiopia adopted a similar economic agenda  that placed a  great emphasis to smallholder agriculture,  urban and  industrial  development. Various policy instruments were introduced to support and guide industrial development. Ethiopia's  development agenda  led to a double digit economic growth between 2003/04 and 2010/11. The country's  GDP grew by about 10.6 per cent annual average during the period. All the major sectors including industry were also reported to have grown by more than 10 per cent over the same period . 

However, in spite of Ethiopia's remarkable success story , the structure of the country's economy remained unchanged.  The sect-oral value added composition of the economy remained the same except in the  service sector which became the largest sector overtaking agriculture. The industry value added share to GDP (this was the main focus of the development agenda) remained relatively static and never exceeded 14 per cent during the growth decade.

So where did the economic growth come from ? It came from Ethiopia's   infrastructure spending. According to Grant-Makokera and Rantao (2012) the Ethiopian government c spent 10 per cent of its GDP (about US$1.3 billion annually)  on infrastructure during the growth period. In contrast, during the same period, other basic sectors such as chemicals, basic metal, and engineering remained underdeveloped. For example in 2010, the basic metal and engineering sector which included the manufactures of fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment, and motor vehicles and trailers accounted for no more than 7 per cent of employment and 12 per cent of value.Similarly, the chemical sector only accounted for only 6 per cent of employment and 5 per cent of value added in the same year. 


The challenge to these critical sectors turned out to be the fact that despite huge and continued investment in its infrastructure, Ethiopia, as a landlocked country, still remained one of the most difficult places in the world from which to engage in the global economy. This was  because of the absence of a competitive network of global logistics within the country . According to the World Bank Trade Facilitation indicators, Ethiopia ranked 123rd out of 155 countries in the world overall Logistics Performance Index (LPI) in 2009. The country also remained  among the lowest in terms of use of information and communication technology (ICT). The country failed to develop the prerequisite systems that support the primary sectors of economic development. 

The government of Ethiopia is currently undertaking  different measures to address the pre-requisite issues that prevented it from achieving  real and tangible economic growth with its economic system  including a wide range of socio-political reforms.

From this case study we learn that declaring a growth agenda can prove insufficient to achieve overall success.  According to a draft budget policy statement released in 2018, the government of Kenya seeks to raise the share of manufacturing sector from nine to 15 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022, expand food production and supply, provide universal health coverage for all Kenyan homes and build 500,000 affordable houses. 

However, if the country fails to develop the underlying socio-economic systemic issues , the big four agenda may not make much difference in the lives of Kenyans. Some of the underlying prerequisite actions may include but not limited to:

1)  Wide ranging reforms to modernize Kenya's civil service including dealing with economic crimes 

2) A regular review of the policies and instruments that need  to be instituted with the aim of identifying emerging bottlenecks to the growth agenda 

3)Framing of policies with a view of addressing constraints along the whole economic value chain and its horizontal linkages

The Ethiopian experience suggests that although the Kenyan government may have its own list of priority sectors a priori, they should allow flexibility and revise their choice of actions  through time.

Kennedy Gumbe
www.trd.co.ke

Fiberglass Infrastructure For The Port of Mombasa

The Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) desires to improve access to reliable and sustainable infrastructure through rehabilitation and extension of office space, decking, wastewater and sanitation facilities and other general architectural work at the Port of Mombasa.

In 2016 we proposed to KPA to carry out  an assessment of existing infrastructure at the port and to develop sustainable solutions to replace the some of the aging infrastructure with sustainable technologies.For us to do this, we needed to evaluate the condition and remaining expected life of some of the current port assets such as   the storm drainage, the sanitary facilities and the  water systems - correlating  them with their design life and determining whether improvements were mandatory.

Our assessment found that the marine coastal environment is  very corrosive to  systems built with steel, wood and concrete. As the port makes progress with its endeavor to make improvements, we proposed architectural fiberglass systems made of reinforcements and thermoset polyester or vinyl ester resin systems for structural materials that were needed to make replacements. Fiberglass structures are strong, attractive, and are able to withstand corrosive salt-water environment with ease. Some of the materials we proposed included the following:


• Fiberglass made handrails, pultruded grating, decking, structural shapes and plates as an attractive, low-maintenance and long-lasting alternative to steel and wood in the corrosive marine environment of Mombasa.

• A wide variety of bar shapes and spacing that could meet specific needs such as the durable non-skid surfaces perfect for the sometimes slippery environments found around the docks and marinas.

• Structural shapes and plate that are the ideal replacement for wood and metal structural materials in the  marine environments .

• Interlocking decking surface material for the walkways and docks. These are lightweight, corrosion- and rot- resistant and are installed quickly and that require virtually no maintenance.

• Sheet Piling and Round Piles for the marine structures such as seawalls and bulkhead alternative to the current steel, concrete, or treated wood.

To begin our work with the the Kenya Ports of Authority and to demonstrate the structural sustainability of fiberglass, we installed fiberglass manhole covers at the main gate of the Port.

Our composite manhole cover installed at the port has now been tested by the heaviest loads coming out of the port for two years with great success. The heavier the load, the more compact the cover becomes ( Concrete would crack and metal would bend at heavier loads). Other infrastructure that could also be replaced with fiberglass in the immediate term include fresh water containment as shown below :

Our exciting work with KPA at the Port of Mombasa continues.

Sustainable Highways Maintainance- Kenya

The Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA) is responsible for managing, developing, rehabilitating and maintaining the most critical road assets, the national highways in Kenya. TRD is currently seeking to  partner with (KeNHA) to carry out a pavement asset management consultancy study. The objective of the study will be support the development of Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) and multi-year pavement rehabilitation program for KeNHA. The study report will outline the pavement management technology gaps at the authority. The current technology gaps could be in the collection and analysis of surface distress data, rutting, roughness (IRI), video logs, and FWD strength testing data that is needed for use in the development of Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) and development of a multi-year pavement and rehabilitation program.

With these specifications, the pavement asset management program could be successfully developed. The study will also aim to establish the required support within the executive levels at KeNHA. It will outline the levels of commitment in terms of the financial, staffing, and policy. This will ensure that the proposed program will be of benefit to the authority. The findings will highlight such benefits to the agency especially in terms of the specific resource savings that will be accrued from developing such a program. Some of the expected outcomes of the program are outlined in the subsections below;

The Nairobi Thika Corridor

The Nairobi-Thika Corridor (also called Thika Road) was constructed by KeNHA northeast of the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) and extends from Nairobi City Center to Thika District. The trunk road currently serves as a main cargo route and an important metropolitan, regional and international transit link and is part of the classified international trunk road A2, which originates in Nairobi City Center and extends to Moyale, Ethiopia.  The road also acts as a main artery for various satellite towns and economic hubs that lie along and near the corridor, including Ruaraka, Kasarani, Kiambu Town, Githurai, Ruiru, Juja and Thika. Thika Road is therefore one of the most traveled corridors in the Nairobi metropolitan region.

Some of the challenges that may affect the sustainable maintenance of Thika road may include heavy congestion and fast dilapidation of sections. The inclusion of this this major road in a pavement management program could help outline the cost benefits of a safer, more pedestrian friendly highway environment, as well as the benefits of creating a more pleasing urban setting and improving access to local neighborhoods. Under the program, a pavement management system could be developed to enable KeNHA to regularly collect speed, volume and lane occupancy information, which could be uploaded from the field via a cellular connection to a database with the capability to summarize the raw data (by minute) as well as hourly data for analysis. The analysis of the data could help design improvements that support among other techniques, queuing and distance timing as required in efforts to decongest the highway and improve the driving experience.

The proposed system could integrate the use of automatic road analyzer  vans to measure roughness, distress and texture of sections of the road allowing for video inventory which could be used to score different section ratings such as ‘very good’, ‘good’ or "poor’, etc. enabling the monitoring of  dilapidated sections for maintenance. In addition to those overall ratings, the detailed data will be used by maintenance contractors to determine how and why these sections are deteriorating. This will allow the KeNHA maintenance schedules to be properly timed and prioritized for cost effectiveness.

The Outer-Ring Road

KeNHA upgraded the Outer-Ring Road from a condition that had a deteriorated bitumen surface to enhance a smooth traffic flow and improve traffic movement linkages with major corridors such as the Nairobi – Thika Highway, the Eastern Bypass and the Nairobi – Mombasa Highway. The road corridor is highly built-up with residential, medium to high commercial features and low level industrial activities.

KeNHA engineers may need pavement data from the road to create digital color-coded maps and to rate conditions within the context of the relevant environmental conditions aimed at devising reliable maintenance plans. For example, most sections in the project area are located on relatively flat terrain that influences the surface drainage. The road also traverses various characteristics of drainage zone where the first half has efficient surface drainage (influenced by Mathare and Nairobi Rivers), the middle sections (Umoja – Tena estate areas) being flat and hence poorly drained. There is need for data collection on how these conditions affect the pavement surface distress.

                            

The maintenance department's goal may be to develop and successfully implement a "proactive approach" for prioritizing, preserving, rehabilitating, and maintaining the most vulnerable sections. For this to be done successfully, it is necessary to understand the problems when they first appear. The authority needs to ensure that the right section of the highway is fixed regularly at the right time and with the right treatment. By regularly presenting information based on data driven pavement deterioration analysis and prioritization, a significant change in the resource allocation method for maintenance programs will be achieved. The result could be a significant change in the mix of maintenance programs (prevention, correction, rehabilitation, reconstruction) and a reduced growth of the major maintenance inventory.

The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor

The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor project is a transport and infrastructure project in Kenya that, when complete, will be the country's second transport corridor. The cost of the project has been put at KSh. 2.5 trillion ($29.24 billion). It is expected that the government will be spending about 6% of the country's Gross Domestic Product or 16% of its annual budget on the project that is in turn expected to contribute an additional 3% increase in Kenya's GDP by 2020.

Under the proposed program The Automatic Road Analyzers (ARAN) could collect customized condition and asset data on LAPSSET roads to enable the determination of the current condition and status of the road and its associated assets.

ARANs are capable of traveling up to posted highway speeds while collecting data and directly recording to the on-board systems for analysis. The data will be collected on sections of the LAPSSET roads for the purposes of ensuring that the roads continually meet expected quality measurements. It will provide detailed results that can be used to address any potential issues identified as well as to estimate what the cost to repair the road upfront will be as compared to the losses if quality issues are not readily addressed.

Study Objective

The technology gap analysis study is aimed at showing the cost saving implications of adopting a pavement asset management program for selected assets under KeNHA. The study will further help KeNHA understand the link between project cost escalations and the lack technological capability offered by tools for managing road assets and optimizing maintenance strategies in the context of social, environmental and economic impacts. The outcome would be the development of a pavement management program for KeNHA designed to meet the agency’s specific scope of requirements.

     i.        To consolidate all of the existing information and experience on Kenya’s highways into a documented process outlining areas for improvement;

    ii.        To develop the appropriate information for the coordination, procurement, facilitation and management of a pavement management system. This includes establishing support from the highest levels of management to ensure funding, resources, and commitment to follow the system is in place;

   iii.        To provide a basis for determining the approaches to the choices between building “in-house” capacity and outsourcing of external knowledge;

  iv.        To define a project scope to establish a  pavement management software solution and process, informed by global trends, local context, existing projects and relevant information from stakeholders;

    v.        To define a framework of collaboration between different stakeholders i.e. Counties, cities, other agencies etc.;

  vi.        To define a program scope to establish the goals of KeNHA and a plan to achieve the goals.

Kennedy Gumbe

www.trd.co.ke

Industrializing Kisumu

Kenya’s long term development agenda is enshrined in the Vision 2030, which aims to

transform the Country into a newly industrializing, middle-income economy that provides a

high quality of life to all citizens by 2030. The vision rests on three

pillars: an economic pillar which aims at economic growth of 10% per annum; a social pillar which seeks just, cohesive and equitable social development in a clean and secure

environment; and a political pillar which aims to install an issue-based, people-centered,

result-oriented and accountable political system that respects rule of law and protects the

rights and freedoms of every Kenyan. The pillars are anchored on infrastructure development,

public sector reform and macroeconomic stability.

Vision 2030 Flagship Projects

1. Special economic zone and Development of Industrial Parks
2. National Sports stadium
3. Installation of CCTV cameras and command centre
4. Development of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Parks
5. Re-construction and modernization of the Mombasa – Kisumu Railway
6. Construction of Commuter rail system
7. 21 Mw Sangoro Hydro-Power Station
8. Kisumu Waste Management Project
9. Rural Electrification Programme

According the Kisumu County Food Security and Agriculture, Industrialization and

Enterprise development, Tourism, Technology, Sports and Talent are the priority sectors

targeted for growth in contributing to GDP, creating employment, and reducing poverty in

the short term and medium term. This means that the County is expected to grow at a higher

rate than other Counties in the MTP II period with an immediate high impact on energy

generation and utilization.

However, for Kisumu to industrialize and to contribute to Kenya Vision 2030 Availability of efficient, reliable and cost effective energy supply is a pre-requisite. Therefore, a proper understanding of the County energy context is necessary for the integration of energy into broader development policy goals.

The current energy peak demand in the County is estimated at 42.2 MW projected to reach

337.2 MW by the year 2030. The industrial sector currently consumes about 85 per cent of the electricity supply to the Kisumu County from the national grid while the domestic consumption accounts for about 15 per cent. The County currently has manufacturing industries, bakeries, Jua-kali associations and Jua-kali artisans etc with Kisumu city and the surrounding areas hosting several other light industries centered on processing agricultural products, brewing, and manufacturing

including molasses, fish and agricultural produce processing.

The County has 3 sugar factories, factories, at Chemelil, Muhoroni and Kibos with plans underway for a fourth mill. Kisumu city is currently also witnessing unprecedented growth in the hotel industry, with over ten facilities put up in the last five years. The LCDP plans for 98% electrification rate by 2030 up from 18% in 2014. There is a case for meeting these targets cost effectively.

Kisumu County energy supply is currently dependent on biomass which represents circa 80%

of its total energy consumption. Solar, Wind, and Municipal Waste are largely unexploited.

For instance, Solar currently provides less than 1.0 of the energy needs in the County. Also, in

terms of electricity, only about 18 % of households are connected to the national grid. 

There are expectations of accelerated economic growth prospects, employment and improved

livelihoods in Kisumu County. Efforts by the County Government through the Kisumu Urban

Project in developing the Integrated Strategic Urban Development Plan is expected to address

some of the general challenges that come with urbanization. However, policy interventions could also

help develop Sub-County Urban Plans following the County Integrated Development Plans

which address specific sectors like energy . 

Specific targeted interventions could ensure that electricity generation and management of utilization both at household and commercial levels are addressed at sub-urban and community levels.In support of the short-term, medium-term and long-term development agenda of the County,

and based on the current situation, the sustainable energy policy framework shall focus on

three objectives:

1. Promotion of equitable access to quality energy services at least cost while protecting

the environment

2. Promotion of renewable energy use and for electricity generation where feasible

3. Promotion of energy efficiency and conservation in the County.

Kennedy Gumbe

www.trd.co.ke

Urban Farming - The Nakuru County Story

Nakuru County is home to Lake Naivasha, one of the fresh water lake within Kenyan Rift valley which gets its recharge from Aberdares water towers is the nerve of the horticulture business that contributes to over 10% of Kenya’s agricultural export, generating more than €350 million annually and creating direct employment opportunities for over 30,000 people as well as benefiting above 350, 000 people indirectly. 

However, the greatest story is found in the small scale urban farmers in the county. The first and up to now most comprehensive study on urban agriculture in Kenya ( carried out by the Mazingira Institute in 1985  on Nakuru) - showed the city presented one of the best opportunity to develop urban farming in Kenyan towns. The study showed that the Nakuru urban farming population consisted of households from all income categories. 

Today, urban farming is  considered as part of the informal economy. What is relevant, however, is that for some urban groups, agricultural activities are extremely important, in the sense that it is part of a strategy of income diversification necessary to maintain a certain level of living or even to survive. From this point of view, farming by urban dwellers is related to declining purchasing power and to urban poverty, which in its turn is partly the result of the economic crisis prevalent in most African countries. Because of their combined productive and reproductive responsibilities, the role of urban women is crucial in this respect.

For Nakuru county, Small-scale farming activities are growing within the municipality. This is mostly located in the peri-urban areas. The former rural area south of the Enjoro River in the southwestern part of the town, which became part of the municipality after the boundary extension of 1992 , is such an area. Many farms have been subdivided into small-holder portions and urban residential plots. Nevertheless, farming is still the main activity there.

Urban farming in these small holder residential plots is highly dependent on the availability of space. In other words, housing density, more than population density, determines whether farming in a certain residential estate is possible and to what extent. To some extent, housing densities coincide with income levels, in the sense that high-income areas have generally low densities while low-income areas have high densities . However, low-income areas with quite low housing densities also exist.

There are three types of urban agriculture in the town. First, there is farming in privately-owned compounds (on-plot farming). Second, there is farming in the compounds of the municipal residential estates. These are rented houses, but farming is very common either in the compounds of the individual renters or between the housing. Finally, off-plot farming by poor people on land that does not belong to them also occurs in Nakuru. 

From the above,  urban agriculture is a fact of life which cannot be ignored when planning for sustainable planning in cities. Urban farming is an important source of food, income and employment is something that can not be neglected by policy makers. At the same time, however, according to the municipal by-laws which date from the colonial period, farming in town is an illegal activity.

The county government could change this through an environmentally-friendly city plan and recognizing that urban agriculture is an inevitable part of all future urban  urban plans. The first step could be to designate zones where certain types of farming are allowed under certain conditions. In designing by-laws, the various acts which deals with agriculture and local government should be considered. Examples of such acts are the Public Health Act, the Agricultural Act, the Water Act, the Physical Planning Act, the Meat Control Act, the Local Government Act, the Chiefs Act, etc. There is need to review all such acts in order to construct a coherent set of regulations. The result could be a General Code, based on the local circumstances in Nakuru . 

More than this, In designing policies for urban agriculture, one should be aware that many urban people farm in the rural areas as well. Urban farming will always to some extent have to do with the need to fill the extra mouths during the stage that households are at their largest (in connection with rural urban - urban rural migration).  it is therefore important to learn more about the importance of the connection between urban-rural farming activities by city based households, the poor in particular.

Ken Gumbe 
www.trd.co.ke